Returns Model

One deal structure, weighted bear/base/bull scenarios. Monte Carlo IRR/MOIC distribution, value-creation bridge, and sensitivity. Save and reload scenarios from the Saved menu.

Deal structure

implied entry margin 20.0%

Entered once. Cases below vary only revenue growth, margin expansion, and exit multiple.

Entry revenue

Entry EBITDA

Entry multiple

Hold

yrs

Leverage

x EBITDA

Interest rate

Tax rate

Capex % of revenue

ΔNWC % of revenue

Exit fee % of TEV

M&A entry multiple

M&A EBITDA growth

Equity structure

Kanbrick owns 100.0% of equity

Headline MOIC/IRR are Kanbrick's post-waterfall return. A preferred favors Kanbrick off the top at the rollover's expense.

Rollover %

Equity structureMgmt pool %

Management P-units take their % of value created above the hurdle (max of 1× equity returned or the preferred); junior to it, and it dilutes Kanbrick's upside.

Cases

Downside

Revenue growth (CAGR)

Margin exp.

bps

Exit multiple

M&A EBITDA / yr

Implied EBITDA CAGR

2.0%

Base

Revenue growth (CAGR)

Margin exp.

bps

Exit multiple

M&A EBITDA / yr

Implied EBITDA CAGR

10.1%

Upside

Revenue growth (CAGR)

Margin exp.

bps

Exit multiple

M&A EBITDA / yr

Implied EBITDA CAGR

17.2%

Driver correlation

The cases set each driver's P10 / P50 / P90, and paths sample past them — a real downside tail where leverage turns into a loss. Correlation sets how tightly the drivers move: at 100% a weak world is weak on everything; below that, exit-multiple compression can strike while operations hold.

Paths

Risk-free rate

MAR (hurdle)

Click Preview to run the simulation.